The Denver metro area’s housing market ranked third in the nation, with homes losing 3.6 percent of their value in the year ending in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released today.
The Case-Shiller report, perhaps the most most closely followed and most influential real estate index, showed that once again, Denver did far better than the top 20 metropolitan areas in the index, which overall showed a one year dive of 15.4 percent. That, however, is an improvement, too.
Only Dallas, with a 2.2 percent decline, and Cleveland, with a 3 percent drop, showed smaller one year changes than Denver. Since January 2000, overall Denver-area home prices have appreciated almost 27 percent. You can see how Denver stacks up to the other 19 cities in a subsequent blog I wrote today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. Census divisions – recorded a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008.
“While still a substantial negative annual rate of return, this is an improvement over the record decline of 19.1% reported in the 1st quarter of the year,” the report notes. “The 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 15.1% and 15.4%, respectively. These are also improvements from their recent respective record losses of -19.4% and -19.1%.”
“For the second month in a row, we’re seeing some positive signs,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The U.S. National Composite rose in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter of 2009. This is the first time we have seen a positive quarter-over-quarter
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted monthly increases, as did most of the cities. there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. ..However, some of the hardest hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness.”
As of the 2nd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in early 2003, according to the report. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 30.2%.
The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their second consecutive monthly increases.
Both indices were up 1.4% in June over May, and up 0.5% in May over April. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns compared to those of May. Looking at the monthly data, the same 18 metro areas reported positive returns in June.
In spite of the recent positive data, the overall numbers remain weak, with all metro areas and the two composites posting negative annual returns, and 15 out of the 20 metro areas reporting double digit annual declines.
While not alone, Las Vegas and Detroit continue to be two markets that are struggling severely.
These are the only two markets that fell in June and saw deterioration in their annual rates of return.
Since their relative peaks they have fallen 54.3% and 45.3%, respectively.
More upbeat news is seen in the monthly data across other markets; Dallas and Denver have reported four consecutive months of positive returns. In June, Denver showed a 2.5 percent gain, compared to a 1.4 percent overall gain for the 20 cities. Six cities in the index out-performed Denver and 13 improved less.
In addition to the two composites, 13 of the MSAs reported positive monthly returns for June that were greater than +1.0%.
Metropolitan Area May to June Change One-Year Change
Atlanta 1.5% -13.7%
Boston 2.6% -5.9%
Charlotte 0.7% -9.6%
Chicago 1.1% -16.7%
Cleveland 4.2% -3.0%
Dallas 2.7% -2.2%
DENVER 2.5% -3.6%
Detroit -0.8% -25.0%
Las Vegas -2.0% -32.4%
Los Angeles 1.1% -17.8%
Miami 0.5% -23.4%
Minneapolis 3.1% -19.8%
New York 0.4% -11.9%
Phoenix 1.1% -31.6%
Portland 1.0% -15.2%
San Diego 1.6% -16.0%
San Francisco 3.8% -22.0%
Seattle 0.4% -16.1%
Tampa 0.4% -19.5%
Washington, D.C. 2.8% -11.8%
Composite-10 1.4% -15.1%
Composite-20 1.4% -15.4%
Sources: Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv
This would be an order of magnitude more helpful with a graph showing the inflation-adjusted prices for Denver over the last 30+ years.
Focusing on month-to-months changes is just silly. Real estate is about the long term, not the short.
David,
My latest blog shows appreciation from January 2000 through June 2009 of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller report. Case-Shiller uses “matched price pairs,” so they avoid the statistical bias of an uncontrolled universe, such as MLS data. Interesting enough, though, both indexes tend to show similar trends.
I don’t think the percentage changes are adjusted for inflation. But Case-Shiller says they are “value-weighted averages.”
John
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Did you ever consider this? Average price is simple; add up all the sales prices divide by the number of transactions – voila’; there’s your number. But what really goes into this average price?
Over the years, houses have become larger. The average size of houses has increased. I think this is the first year in my lifetime where the average size of a new house actually dropped. But, beyond that, houses have more STUFF; electronics, garage openers, microwaves, more bathrooms, basements have higher ceilings, closets are bigger, alarms here and there, wood, slate, granite, marble, etc.
Are you still following me? Here we go, have homes appreciated as much as we think they have based on reported average prices, or have houses become larger, more content rich and more functional over time as to give us a perception of appreciation than might actually be occurring from cost rather than market driven forces.
I know this topic is a little esoteric, but the average price of a house in its 1950s version is significantly different than the average price of a house in 1980s trim, and so on. Are we comparing apples to apples – year after year?
Tom,
Yes, I know exactly what you are talking about.
Unlike the Metrolist data, which is simply a mix of all homes that sold and were placed under contract that period, Case-Shiller uses “matched price pairs,” of homes in its index. That removes some of the “size creep” bias you find in the MLS. Some people, such as Lou Barnes, have criticized Case-Shiller because so many of the homes being sold today are distressed. “Garbage in, garbage out,” Barnes once told me.
But David Blitzer, of Standard & Poor’s, today defended including foreclosed homes in the index. He said they do make up a pretty big part of the markets in places such as California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona, and do drive down the numbers. But he said the sales of many of these homes at much higher prices drove up the numbers a few years ago, so it is only right they are included when the market is going down.
Thanks for all your help, Tom.
John
[...] released today. Denver ranked No. 3 on the report for the year ending in June, as I wrote on my blog this [...]
[...] Denver ranks third in June, shows Case-Shiller: The Denver metro area’s housing market ranked third in the nation, with homes losing 3.6 percent of their value in the year ending in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released today. The Case-Shiller report, perhaps the most most closely followed and most influential real estate index, showed that once again, Denver did far better than the top 20 metropolitan areas in the index, which overall showed a one year dive of 15.4 percent. That, however, is an improvement, too. Go to Article (Insiderealestatenews.com) [...]