John Rebchook is a former Rocky Mountain News reporter with more than 30 years of experience in writing and communications... Here is some good news about the Denver-area home market that largely went unnoticed when October data was released a week ago.
The average and median price of a home sold and closed in October rose from October 2008. But perhaps just as significant, it was the second consecutive month that prices had risen from the same month the year before, reversing a trend for most of 2009.
Last month, the average price of a single-family home that closed was $261,771, 4.67 percent more than the $250,127 in October 2008. The median price of a home closed was $222,00, up 7.76 percent from $206,000 in October 2008. The average price of a home closed in October was down 4.6 percent from September, and the overall median price of a home closed in October was down 1.3 percent from September.
Typically, comparing the same month to the previous year is considered a better measure of the status of the market, because it does not have the seasonal fluctuations from consecutive month comparisons.
“I think it is a little too early to call it a trend,” said independent broker Gary Bauer, who compiles a monthly report based on Metrolist data. “I am very positive about this, though.”
Bauer said the mix of homes is starting to change, leading to the year-over-year increases.
“In the first seven-plus months of the year, all that was being sold were the really lower-priced properties,” Bauer said. “Now, we’re starting to see the move-up buyer getting back into the market. But I’m not quite yet ready to call it a trend.”
He’s also not quite ready to say that the bottom of the market has been hit.
“Ideally, I’d like to see six months or so of improving numbers,” Bauer said. “But I’d probably be willing to settle for even three or four months.”
Jim Nussbaum, a broker with the Kentwood Co., agreed.
“I think it is a little too early to call it a trend,” Nussbaum said earlier this week. “I think I would like to see rising prices for at least three or four months before I would want to call it a trend.”
Bauer said he is concerned that a downturn in the commercial real estate market could have negative repercussions for the residential market.
“When that really hits, there could be a lot of small businesses that have to shut their doors,” Bauer said. “And when that happens, there is no cash coming in for home ownership.”
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Year Average Price Inflation-adjusted Average Price Median Price Inflation-adjusted Median Price
2001 $254,643 $310,706 $212,750 $259,590
2002 $266,954 $320,477 $223.500 $268,311
2003 $275,839 $323,765 $229,000 $268,788
2004 $289,022 $330,438 $235,900 $269,704
2005 $314,586 $347,879 $250,000 $276,458
2006 $306,307 $328,139 $247,600 $265,248
2007 $289,754 $301,810 $234,200 $234,994
2008 $250,172 $250,946 $206,000 $206,637
2009 $261,771 $222,000
John,
Why can't you bring yourself to create GRAPHS?
They convey so much more info than a table.
,dave
Dave,
You'll be glad to know that I ordered Iwork, so I should soon be able to start creating graphs.
Thanks for the advice.
John