John Rebchook is a former Rocky Mountain News reporter with more than 30 years of experience in writing and communications... It’s been the mantra of Denver real estate.
The Denver-area market didn’t experience the meteoric rise of other markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Los Angeles, but neither did it suffer the spectacular falls of those markets and others.
Today, S&P/Case-Shiller released a report that confirms that.
The index, which tracks 20 major metropolitan statistical areas across the country, released a report that shows from Denver’s peak in August 2006, home prices have fallen by 8.1 percent. Only Dallas fell less from its peak, about 5 percent from June 2006, according to the report, titled “A Year In Review.”
By contrast, Las Vegas fell 55.4 percent from its peak, Phoenix fell by 49.3 percent, and Miami was off just less than 50 percent. The peaks vary from Metropolitan Statistical Area to MSA.
“Since 2000, the area traditionally defined as the Sun Belt – Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada- has experienced the largest run-up in prices and, subsequently, has been hit the hardest in the downturn,” according to the report.
By contrast, ”Markets such as Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver never saw the large double-digit price increases in the 2004-2006 period, but their relative rates of decline have also remained comparatively benign,” according to the analysis by S&P/Case-Shiller. “As of the October 2009 report, Denver’s rate of decline is close to flat, at -0.1%,and Dallas is not far behind, down only 0.6% on an annual basis.” The October report was the most recent one. (Denver was rated No. 1 in the October report. To read more about it, please go to this blog.)
The Detroit market was the only one currently below its 2000 level, down by almost 27 percent
Of course, Denver never saw the dramatic, short-term run-up in prices of other markets. In 2004, Las Vegas was up by 53.2 percent and Phoenix jumped by 49.3 percent. Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa all saw peak annual growth rates above 30 percent. Denver rose by 40.3 percent from January 2000 to its peak in August 2006.
“i think this certainly tracks with what we have been seeing,” said economist Patty Silverstein, principal of Development Research Partners. “Our home prices have been much more stable through this entire period. Our stability means we are in a better position for this whole recovery in the housing market, than most other markets. We have certainly felt the pain of falling prices, and we have certainly felt the pain of rising foreclosures. But the extent of our decline is nothing in comparison to many other markets in other parts of the country. There is something to be said for having a more stable pattern.”
She also said that with almost a 50 percent from January 2000 to Denver’s peak, and then a drop of less than 10 percent from the peak to October, means, “We still have had a net gain position for the whole decade. Considering that we lost about 40,000 jobs and we have seen many other economic indicators that are very flat to negative, we still managed to see some housing appreciation. I think that is pretty good. I think we are really in a better position than almost every other market.”
(For another take on the Denver market, please visit this blog.)
Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.
