Comments for Inside Real Estate News http://insiderealestatenews.com Colorado's Real Estate News Source Thu, 24 May 2012 02:12:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by Jason http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142536 Jason Thu, 24 May 2012 02:12:44 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142536 Jeff, Great insight! One question, do you really think it matters who wins the election? Taxes will be going up regardless. All the tax cuts are set to rise Jan 1, 2013 unless legislation is passed. Even if the Republicans retake the White House and Senate, the Dems remember what the Republicans did the last 4 years. They can filibuster any legislation put forth by the new administration. My guess is the will do this early and often. Can you blame them? This is going to be an epic battle and in my opinion and taxes will rise. Unwinding some regulations will also require congressional approval. Also, I would also bet any tax reform plan will include some form of elimination of the mortgage interest deduction. Thoughts? Jeff,

Great insight! One question, do you really think it matters who wins the election? Taxes will be going up regardless. All the tax cuts are set to rise Jan 1, 2013 unless legislation is passed. Even if the Republicans retake the White House and Senate, the Dems remember what the Republicans did the last 4 years. They can filibuster any legislation put forth by the new administration. My guess is the will do this early and often. Can you blame them? This is going to be an epic battle and in my opinion and taxes will rise. Unwinding some regulations will also require congressional approval. Also, I would also bet any tax reform plan will include some form of elimination of the mortgage interest deduction.

Thoughts?

]]> Comment on Arrow a “game changer” for Colorado by Jason http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/arrow-a-game-changer-for-colorado/comment-page-1/#comment-142521 Jason Thu, 24 May 2012 01:18:19 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17895#comment-142521 This is good news! We will need these jobs to offset the layoffs announced in Jan by Vestas wind energy and the 27,000(world wide) layoffs by HP today. HP has 1500 employees in Colorado Springs. When congress does not renew the wind energy credit set to expire at the end of the year, 1600 jobs at Vestas go away in colorado. Vestas just let go 700 last week. This is good news! We will need these jobs to offset the layoffs announced in Jan by Vestas wind energy and the 27,000(world wide) layoffs by HP today. HP has 1500 employees in Colorado Springs. When congress does not renew the wind energy credit set to expire at the end of the year, 1600 jobs at Vestas go away in colorado. Vestas just let go 700 last week.

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by jeff burke http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142513 jeff burke Thu, 24 May 2012 00:43:11 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142513 This will be the fourth cycle in my 35 yrs as a broker that Denver metro will be exactly opposite the east coast/west/coast markets. This cycle began last Sept as we recorded an increase of month to month year over increase. I watched that through the fall and into the new year, enough months to mark a trend. Then in January there was no post holiday listing surge we normally see. That followed up with no spring listing surge. June will be interesting as school lets out. We know that metro Denver is a composite of markets, some exotic: other areas are still lacking any real level of demand other than for the foreclosures. I don't believe the builders, other than Richmond and Shea, (and who really wants to deal with Shea??)have enough dirt under them to impact the market with new inventory in less than 15 to 18 months, and that would be quick. We have enough corporate growth to help the RE market but contrary to the 90's this batch of relocating companies will have difficulty buying here. They're leaving behind homes they can't sell. They've lost equity. We used to love the CA buyer..he was moving down and bringing booty with him. No longer, they're lucky if they escape Gov Moonbeam's encore...16 bill in debt...but!!, the best union and public sector pension plans this side of DC. But I digress. Plus those poor relo families are going to run itno a brutal rental market if they're not buying. Caveat, whatever's going on will quickly die in December if the current administration is retained. Businesses will absolutely refuse to hire because they know what's coming. Confiscation of wealth and assets through regulation and taxation. That is not a winning formula. So let's ride this through the summer. Daylight savings doesn't kick in til around Nov 10, so a few extra days of selling after work. sell, Mel, sell.... jb canes '73 This will be the fourth cycle in my 35 yrs as a broker that Denver metro will be exactly opposite the east coast/west/coast markets. This cycle began last Sept as we recorded an increase of month to month year over increase. I watched that through the fall and into the new year, enough months to mark a trend. Then in January there was no post holiday listing surge we normally see. That followed up with no spring listing surge. June will be interesting as school lets out. We know that metro Denver is a composite of markets, some exotic: other areas are still lacking any real level of demand other than for the foreclosures.
I don’t believe the builders, other than Richmond and Shea, (and who really wants to deal with Shea??)have enough dirt under them to impact the market with new inventory in less than 15 to 18 months, and that would be quick.
We have enough corporate growth to help the RE market but contrary to the 90′s this batch of relocating companies will have difficulty buying here. They’re leaving behind homes they can’t sell. They’ve lost equity. We used to love the CA buyer..he was moving down and bringing booty with him. No longer, they’re lucky if they escape Gov Moonbeam’s encore…16 bill in debt…but!!, the best union and public sector pension plans this side of DC. But I digress. Plus those poor relo families are going to run itno a brutal rental market if they’re not buying.
Caveat, whatever’s going on will quickly die in December if the current administration is retained. Businesses will absolutely refuse to hire because they know what’s coming. Confiscation of wealth and assets through regulation and taxation. That is not a winning formula.
So let’s ride this through the summer. Daylight savings doesn’t kick in til around Nov 10, so a few extra days of selling after work.
sell, Mel, sell…. jb canes ’73

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by JohnD http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142488 JohnD Wed, 23 May 2012 23:16:27 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142488 78% of respondents to the poll are team recovery, 22% team double dip. Of the 24 posts, 18 can be fairly assigned to one or the other biases, that total would be 39% team recovery, 61% team double dip. Pretty much what I expected. 78% of respondents to the poll are team recovery, 22% team double dip. Of the 24 posts, 18 can be fairly assigned to one or the other biases, that total would be 39% team recovery, 61% team double dip. Pretty much what I expected.

]]> Comment on Hornung: Buyers need to buyer’s market at the door by Jason http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/hornung-buyers-need-to-buyers-market-at-the-door/comment-page-1/#comment-142475 Jason Wed, 23 May 2012 21:30:00 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17746#comment-142475 Lane, I thinks the odds are 30% we do test the lows again in the next year. However, being an owner of multiple properties, I would hate to root against my own best interest and a gentlemen's bet does not give me any valuable hedging position. So I will pass, but for fun we can rehash this next year!!!! Lane,

I thinks the odds are 30% we do test the lows again in the next year. However, being an owner of multiple properties, I would hate to root against my own best interest and a gentlemen’s bet does not give me any valuable hedging position. So I will pass, but for fun we can rehash this next year!!!!

]]> Comment on Hornung: Buyers need to buyer’s market at the door by Lane Hornung http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/hornung-buyers-need-to-buyers-market-at-the-door/comment-page-1/#comment-142473 Lane Hornung Wed, 23 May 2012 21:16:46 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17746#comment-142473 Dave and Jason, Sorry for the delay in answering your comments... I appreciate both of you responding to the bet I laid out...but you both modified my terms! Granted, I get your points, but the bet stands as first presented...no adjustments for inflation Dave (personally I was always suspect of what index to use for inflation in all my finance class formulas for converting nominal to real anyway!) and sorry Jason, not willing to spot you 1.50 Case Shiller index points. It's a straight up bet....I say no double dip in next 12 months (and to be as specific as possible - double dip is defined as the index falls below the post peak low as measured by the seasonally adjusted index of 120.21 hit in Feb 2009) Who's in? Dave and Jason,

Sorry for the delay in answering your comments…

I appreciate both of you responding to the bet I laid out…but you both modified my terms! Granted, I get your points, but the bet stands as first presented…no adjustments for inflation Dave (personally I was always suspect of what index to use for inflation in all my finance class formulas for converting nominal to real anyway!) and sorry Jason, not willing to spot you 1.50 Case Shiller index points.

It’s a straight up bet….I say no double dip in next 12 months (and to be as specific as possible – double dip is defined as the index falls below the post peak low as measured by the seasonally adjusted index of 120.21 hit in Feb 2009)

Who’s in?

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by Dan http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142413 Dan Wed, 23 May 2012 15:25:04 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142413 Clearly, I'm smarter than everyone at those failed firms. Clearly, I’m smarter than everyone at those failed firms.

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by Jason http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142377 Jason Wed, 23 May 2012 12:14:39 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142377 Dan, You should let Tishman Speyer and Black Rock in on your, "best possible investment" theory. You see, they purchased the largest portfolio of units ever and it turned into the largest mortgage related default of all time. it even happend in a metro area with and extremely low vacancy rate. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/nyregion/25stuy.html?_r=1 Dan,

You should let Tishman Speyer and Black Rock in on your, “best possible investment” theory. You see, they purchased the largest portfolio of units ever and it turned into the largest mortgage related default of all time. it even happend in a metro area with and extremely low vacancy rate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/nyregion/25stuy.html?_r=1

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by Dan http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142330 Dan Wed, 23 May 2012 06:20:15 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142330 Buying a house to live in is a very mediocre investment at best. The more expensive, the worse the investment. Investing in levered rental property is one of the best possible investments. Do not confuse the two, they are apples and oranges. Buying a house to live in is a very mediocre investment at best. The more expensive, the worse the investment. Investing in levered rental property is one of the best possible investments. Do not confuse the two, they are apples and oranges.

]]> Comment on Is Denver’s home market heading for a dive or recovery? by Dan http://insiderealestatenews.com/2012/05/is-denvers-home-market-heading-for-a-dive-or-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-142328 Dan Wed, 23 May 2012 06:06:46 +0000 http://insiderealestatenews.com/?p=17850#comment-142328 Just to clarify, I do not think we will experience hyperinflation, which is a complete loss of confidence in the currency. We will experience 10%+ inflation within 5 years. I do not invest in gold, I invest in real estate, which is much more profitable in an inflationary environment than gold. Very few people saw the inflation coming in the 70's and few will this time around as well. Your opinion will be shared by the majority. Just to clarify, I do not think we will experience hyperinflation, which is a complete loss of confidence in the currency. We will experience 10%+ inflation within 5 years. I do not invest in gold, I invest in real estate, which is much more profitable in an inflationary environment than gold. Very few people saw the inflation coming in the 70′s and few will this time around as well. Your opinion will be shared by the majority.

]]>