Inside Real Estate News » Arapahoe

Job losses driving foreclosures

John Rebchook — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:36:32 +0000

Foreclosure filings in the dozen largest Colorado counties rose in February from February 2009, as I reported this morning on an earlier blog.

But the 6.5 percent increase was not a surprise, considering a year ago foreclosure filings were artificially low, because several large banks had temporary moratoriums on foreclosure activity in early 2009, notes Ryan McMaken, of the Colorado Division of Housing, which released today’s report.

And the foreclosure sales are up even more, but that is largely a function of homes that have begun the process with filings. McMaken’s research indicates there tends to be a spike in sales, eight months following the actual filings.

But the bigger question is, despite the 6.5 percent blip in filings, does it appear that the worst of the foreclosure crisis is behind us?

“I’ll take the Fifth on that one,” Ron Woodcock, a broker with RE/MAX Southeast, answered, when I posed that question to him.

Colorado “awesome” compared to rest of country

Seriously, he said that although Colorado and the Denver area are in much better shape than most of the rest of the country, the biggest threat to a resurgence in foreclosure activity are people losing their jobs, he said.

“I think Colorado is in awesome shape compared to the rest of the country,” Woodcock said. “You know I was a licensed broker in Florida for 20 years before I came to Denver. If I were still in Florida, I’d be waiting tables at Disneyworld, and not selling homes.”

But he said that what initially drove the foreclosure crisis – bad loans given to anyone who could fog a mirror – no longer are the chief culprit driving foreclosures.

Lack of jobs the problem

“I would only say that one of 10 people I deal with, is because they have adjusting ARMs, or something,” Woodcock said. “Nine out of 10 times it is because they have lost their jobs. This country has to create more jobs! So it is very hard to say if we are at the bottom of foreclosures. Without job creation, it is hard to know if we have seen the worst of it. I think I am more optimistic than most people, but I am worried that we might see another spike in foreclosures, if people can’t get good jobs.”

Shannon Peer, who heads counseling at Brothers Redevelopment in Edgewater, which runs the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline, 1-877-601-HOPE, said that 85 percent of the people who have been calling mention that they are worried about losing their homes either because they lost their jobs or their income has dropped sharply.

Lenders offering forbearance programs

The good news, said Stephanie Riggi, also of Brothers, is that lenders increasingly are more willing to work with people to keep them in their homes. If they lose their jobs, they may not qualify for loan modification programs, but some lenders now are allowing forbearance programs, in which the lender will allow the homeowner not to pay their mortgage for a certain period of time, while they try to get back on their feet.

“It’s really a temporary suspension of the mortgage payment,” she said. “Every lender is different. But they might suspend your payments for three months, and at the end of that period re-evaluate to see where you are.”

When compared to other parts of the country with large urban areas, Denver is certainly in better shape than most places, said McMaken, of the housing division.

Areas that previously were “ground zero” for foreclosures – Adams, Arapahoe and Denver counties – have seen huge drops in activity, he noted.

“But now, it is spreading to other parts of the state,” McMaken said. “We’re seeing huge increases like Mesa County. And the mountain resort communities are really being hit hard. Public trustees are telling me that in the past, almost none of the resort properties that went into foreclosure went all the way to sales. That’s because there were a lot of people eager to buy them. People used to even fly in from Russia to buy properties. You don’t hear of that anymore. Even in places like Telluride, properties will sit around unsold for months.”

But overall, McMaken said at least for the short-term, foreclosure filings and foreclosure sales will start to level off. But he said that Colorado is not immune to what happens to the national economy. If inflation rises, which causes mortgage rates to increase, “that will not be good news for Colorado housing,” he said. Also, he said that when thousands of students graduate from high school and college in May and June, the size of the labor force will grow. And without more jobs on the horizon, the unemployment rate may grow, he said.

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865

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Foreclosure sales down

John Rebchook — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 19:21:52 +0000

This year is unlikely to set a record for foreclosures.

Foreclosure sales at auction in Colorado’s largest counties fell 13 percent in the first 11 months of the year, compared to the same period last year, according to a state report released today.

The report by the Department of Local Affairs – Division of Housing, shows that completed foreclosures declined, but new foreclosure filings rose 12 percent for the period of January to November compared year over year.

There were 32,744 foreclosure filings and 17,160 foreclosure sales from January to November of last year. There were 36,628 filings and 14,975 sales during the same period this year.

Comparing the month of November this year to November last year, foreclosure sales fell 0.5 percent from 1,520 to 1,512, while new foreclosure filings rose 11.8 percent from 2,506 to 2,802.

Foreclosure activity fell from October to November.

Foreclosure sales fell 0.4 percent, and foreclosure filings fell 13.4 percent. Monthly totals peaked in July of this year when foreclosure sales reached 1,869 and foreclosure filings totaled 3,855.

Mesa County reported the largest year-over-year increase in completed foreclosures, with an increase of 181 percent

Boulder County and El Paso County reported increases of 126 percent and 11 percent respectively, while all other counties surveyed reported decreases in the number of completed foreclosures.

Adams County and Arapahoe County reported decreases of 22 percent and 20 percent respectively. Denver County reported the largest decline of 33 percent.

However, no counties reported decreases in new foreclosure filings for the same period. Adams and Denver Counties reported no change in totals, but all other counties surveyed reported increases, with Mesa County and Boulder County reporting the largest increases of 139 percent and 39 percent respectively.

“At this point, it appears very unlikely that the number of completed foreclosures will reach the total set in 2007 and 2008,” said Ryan McMaken, a spokesperson with the Colorado Division of Housing. “November was a relatively light month for foreclosures, but with new foreclosure filings still up compared to last year, foreclosures will continue to be a challenge.”

Foreclosure rates in metropolitan counties vary considerably. Adams County and Weld County tied for the highest foreclosure rate with 61 households per foreclosure completed year to date. Pueblo County reported a rate of 84 households per foreclosure, and Arapahoe County report 85. Boulder County reported the lowest rate among counties surveyed with a rate of 326 households per foreclosure. In spite of recent increases in foreclosure activity, Mesa County reported the second-lowest foreclosure rate of 199 households per foreclosure.

For all counties surveyed, the overall foreclosure rate was 128 households per completed foreclosure.

County	2008	2009	Percent Change
Adams	3232	2515	-22
Arapahoe	3222	2585	-20
Boulder	159	360	126
Broomfield	116	113	-3
Denver	4220	2810	-33
Douglas	998	948	-5
El Paso	2010	2234	11
Jefferson	1746	1508	-14
Larimer	759	727	-4
Mesa	102	287	181
Pueblo	717	719	0
Weld	1449	1448	0
Total	17160	14975	-13

County	2008	2009	Percent Change
Adams	5227	5215	0
Arapahoe	5426	5590	3
Boulder	947	1316	39
Broomfield	248	306	23
Denver	5717	5740	0
Douglas	1922	2408	25
El Paso	4179	4886	17
Jefferson	3340	3670	10
Larimer	1493	1947	30
Mesa	442	1058	139
Pueblo	1222	1456	19
Weld	2581	3036	18
Total	32744	36628	12

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Denver-area foreclosure filings rise, sales drop, in October

John Rebchook — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:13:00 +0000

Foreclosures filings in many counties in October from October 2008 rose 6.9 percent to 3,234 from 3,024, according to a Colorado Division of Housing report released today.

Movement in new foreclosure filings was mixed. Arapahoe, Boulder, Larimer and Mesa Counties all reported sizable increases year over year, while Adams, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, and Weld Counties reported decreases in foreclosure filing activity over the same period.

Decreases were more widespread with foreclosure sales. Sales totals dropped in all counties except Boulder and Mesa Counties. Adams, Arapahoe, and Denver reported year over year decreases of over 30 percent.

Overall, foreclosure sales fell 30 percent, year over year.

Foreclosure filings in several counties.

Foreclosure filings fell 7.1 percent from September to October and foreclosure sales fell 9.8 percent.

Comparing year-over-year, foreclosure sales fell 30.1 percent overall with totals falling from 2,171 to 1,518.

Mesa County reported the largest increases in sales activity with an increase of 225 percent. Foreclosure sales also increased significantly in Boulder County with an increase of 28 percent.

Foreclosure filings totals fell 7.1 percent overall from September to October of this year, with totals falling from 3,480 to 3,234.

Totals fell in every county except Denver County and Mesa County where they increased 6 percent and 21 percent respectively.

Pueblo reported the largest fall in totals with a decline of 37 percent.

Foreclosure sales totals increased 21 percent overall from September to October of this year, with totals rising from 1,682 to 1,518.

Only Boulder County reported a sizable increase during this period with an increase of 18 percent. All other counties surveyed reported decreases, with the largest decreases occurring in El Paso and Larimer Counties.

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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Foreclosure activity peaked in July

John Rebchook — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:57:40 +0000

Foreclosure filings picked up in July, and fell back by about 8.5 percent in August, shows a survey of some of the largest counties in Colorado.

The survey of 11 of the largest counties in Colorado by Ryan McMaken of the Colorado Division of Housing indicates that many counties showed the most activity for foreclosure filings in more than a year in July.

However, the good news is that the number of foreclosure sales by public trustee offices from Adams to Pueblo counties, is far smaller than the number of new filings.

In other words, just because a home enters the foreclosure process, does not mean it will be sold at an auction. It might end up as a short sale, or maybe the owner will be able to work out a more favorable payment schedule with the lender, in order to keep their house.

“I think we can take some credit for that with the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline, (1-877-601-HOPE),” McMaken told me. “I think the diminished number of sales indicates the success of the hotline, as well as other efforts.”

McMaken’s report shows that in July, there were 3,610 foreclosure filings in Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Mesa, Pueblo and Weld counties. That number dropped to 3,301 in August.

McMaken has yet to hear back from Larimer County, but the foreclosure filings will not have a huge impact on the overall numbers.

Statewide, Colorado is on track to have in the neighborhood of about 40,000 foreclosure filings this year, a record.

The third quarter will likely see over 10,000 new filings and more than 4,000 sales.

The number of foreclosure sales tell a different story.

“Overall, sales have never (reached) the levels seen during the second half of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008,” McMaken said.” Both filings and sales have slowly increased near to levels during that period, but have still not topped them.”

There were 1,779 foreclosure sales in the 11 counties McMaken tracked in July, which is 49.3 percent of the 3,610 new filings. And there were 1,305 sales in August, 39.5 percent of the number of new filings that month.

However, it is important to note that the sales are not the same homes that entered the foreclosure process in that month. Rather, they are homes that began the foreclosure process many months in the past, since the foreclosure process is such a long and complicated ordeal.

“Many of these sales were homes that entered the process more than a year ago,” McMaken said.

Despite the drop in filings in August from July, McMaken said it is too early to say that the foreclosure crisis in Colorado has hit bottom.

“I don’t know,” he said. “Rising unemployment could mean another wave of foreclosure filings.”

He said several people told him today that they expect a surge in foreclosures in the spring. They typically taper off in the fourth quarter, for seasonal reasons and because the public trustee offices do not open new foreclosures during the Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks.

Foreclosure filings

County	July	August
Adams	490	537
Arapahoe	590	554
Boulder	145	132
Broomfield	34	27
Denver	634	550
Douglas	222	284
El Paso	390	301
Jefferson	390	301
Mesa	130	116
Pueblo	137	98
Weld	308	258
Total	3,610	3,301

Foreclosure Sales

County	July	August
Adams	308	206
Arapahoe	279	228
Boulder	53	40
Broomfield	14	6
Denver	262	252
Douglas	102	70
El Paso	278	195
Jefferson	171	116
Mesa	36	26
Pueblo	86	49
Weld	190	117
Total	1,779	1,305

Source: Ryan McMaken, Colorado Division of Housing

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Rental housing vacancy rates rise

John Rebchook — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 04:07:36 +0000

The overall vacancy rate in Denver-area rental homes rose in the second quarter 5.2 percent from 4.2 percent in the second quarter 2008, a 23.8 percent jump, according to a survey sponsored by the Colorado Division of Housing.

That is the highest vacancy rate since the fourth quarter of 2006, when it stood at 5.5 percent. That year, the second quarter vacancy rate was 7.1 percent, 26.8 percent higher than in the second quarter of this year.

Rental rates, however, are up slightly in the second quarter, from a year earlier. The survey, by University of Colorado business professor Gordon Von Stroh, covers homes with one to four units and includes single-family houses, condominiums, townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, and four-plexes.

The overall vacancy rate in the first-quarter was was 3.6 percent, 44.4 percent lower than in the second quarter. However, that is a smaller percentage quarter-to-quarter percentage change in 2008, when it increased 55.5 percent to 4.2 percent in second quarter 2008 from 2.7 percent in the first quarter of last year.

Vacancy rates for the respective counties were: Adams, 8.3 percent; Arapahoe, 4.4 percent; Boulder/Broomfield, 5.9 percent; Denver, 5.2 percent; Douglas, 3.5 percent; and Jefferson, 5.3 percent.

Vacancy rates by number of bedrooms were: One bedroom, 2.9 percent; two bedroom, 5.5 percent; three bedroom, 5.3 percent; four bedroom, 5.9 percent; and five bedroom, 5.9 percent.

The vacancy rates by age of housing unit were: 1949 and before, 4.0 percent; 1950-59, 6.3 percent; 1960-69, 7.3 percent; 1970-79, 4.8 percent; 1980-89, 4.5 percent, 1990-99, 4.6 percent, and 2000 up, 4.5 percent.

For those units that were vacant, the average days on the market was 54.7 days, up from 53.8 days in the first quarter of 2009, and 43.4 days in the second quarter of 2008.

Average monthly rents increased to $1,016.35 for the second quarter of 2009, up from $1004.44 for the first quarter of 2009, and from $993.61 for the second quarter of 2008.

Average rents for the respective counties were: Adams, $1,046.89; Arapahoe, $995.11; Boulder/Broomfield, $1,550.79; Denver, $940.96; Douglas, $1,386.62; and Jefferson, $978.55.

Average rents by number of bedrooms were: One bedroom, $689.20; two bedrooms, $864.88; three bedrooms, $1,155.26; four bedrooms; $1,341.87; and five bedrooms, $1,416.99.

Average rents by age of housing units were: 1949 and before, $906.81; 1950-59, $942.79; 1960-69, $926.11; 1970-79, $984.86; 1980-89, $933.01; 1990-99, $1262.87, and 2000 up, $1,321.91.

The median metro area rent was $950.00, and for Adams, $1,095.00; Arapahoe, $950.00; Boulder/Broomfield, $1,395.00; Denver, $895.00; Douglas, $1,390.00; and Jefferson, $895.00.

Average rents per square foot for housing units with above grade living space were 81 cents, up from the first quarter of 2009 of 80 cents. The average rent per square foot was 78 cents in the second quarter of 2008.

For this quarter, the survey included 2,726 housing units in the metro Denver area.

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Source: Gordon Von Stroh

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County by county home action

John Rebchook — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 17:30:45 +0000

In the previous blog, I wrote that the 80246 ZIP Code, which includes Hilltop, showed a 47.2 percent appreciation during the second quarter, according to a recent report by San Diego-based DataQuick.

Here are some other interesting points of data.

Overall, the median price of a home in Denver was $186,000 in Denver in the second quarter, down 3.1 percent from a year earlier. There were 3,119 sales, down 16.9 percent. DataQuick tracks new and resale home sales, and unlike the Metrolist report, which was released today for July, it tracks all real estate transactions, not just those sold by Realtors.

In Denver, 80205 showed the biggest increase in sales. A total of 200 homes sold, a 6.4 percent increase. It also tracked Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. It did not include Broomfield or Boulder counties.

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May-to-June foreclosures not encouraging

John Rebchook — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:31:19 +0000

When crunching numbers, I’m always a bit wary of putting too much weight on consecutive month data when it comes to real estate.

That is because there can be huge seasonal reasons why home sales, for example, might pop in March from February, or fizzle in September from August, for example.

But any data can serve a purpose as far as trying to divine trends.

As I reported in other posts, the number of foreclosure filings in the Denver-area has fallen 10.5 percent in the first half of this year, from the same period last year.

But if you look from May to June, the picture is not as pretty. It is darn right ugly, in fact.

In the seven-county area, there were 1,845 new foreclosure filings in June, a 15.5 percent increase from May.

And while every county showed an increase on a month-to-month basis, the changes were all over the map.

Boulder County, for example, showed slightly less than a 1 percent increase, while Broomfield, showed a 42.86 percent increases. But as always is the case with Broomfield, the numbers are so small that the percentage change, up or down, is not significant.

For the biggest counties, the percentage increases for the consecutive months are: Adams and Denver, 9.6 percent each; Douglas, 33.16 percent; and Jefferson, 26 percent.

In this case, I don’t think the May to June increase involves seasonal changes as it does that banks and other lenders no longer have the self-imposed moratoriums on foreclosures. This is definitely a trend to continue to watch.

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Foreclosures by the numbers

John Rebchook — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:27:34 +0000

There were 10,726 foreclosure filings in the first six months of the year, a 10.5 percent drop from the 11,992 in the first half of 2008.

Here is a breakdown, by county.

County 2008 2009 Percentage Change

Adams 3,352 2,963 (11.6)

Arapahoe 3,713 2,964 (20.17)

Boulder 580 643 10.86

Broomfield 152 176 15.7

Denver 3,780 3,153 (16.5)

Douglas 1,235 1,278 (3.2)

Jefferson 2,055 1,989 (3.21)

Sources: Public Trustee Offices/InsideRealEstateNews.com

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Foreclosures fall 10.5 percent

John Rebchook — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:26:45 +0000

Denver-area foreclosures in the Denver area first half of 2009 fell by 10.5 from the first six months of 2008.

There were 10,727 foreclosure filings in the seven-county area, compared with 11,992 from January through June of 2008, according to county public trustee offices surveyed by InsideRealEstateNews.com.

Denver had the most new filings with 3,153 in the first half of the year, but it also showed one of the largest percentage drops, at 16.5 percent. Only Arapahoe County, with a 20.17 percent drop, showed a bigger percentage decline. Broomfield County showed a 15.7 percent increase, but the numbers were small. It went from 152 foreclosure filings in the first half of 2008, to 176 filings in the first half of 2009.

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