The Denver-area market didn’t experience the meteoric rise of other markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Los Angeles, but neither did it suffer the spectacular falls of those markets and others.

Today,  S&P/Case-Shiller  released a report that confirms that.

The index, which tracks 20 major metropolitan statistical areas across the country, released a report that shows from Denver’s peak in August 2006, home prices have fallen by 8.1 percent.  Only Dallas fell less from its peak, about 5 percent from June 2006, according to the report, titled “A Year In Review.”

By contrast, Las Vegas fell 55.4 percent from its peak, Phoenix fell by 49.3 percent,  and Miami was off just less than 50 percent. The peaks vary from Metropolitan Statistical Area to MSA.

“Since 2000, the area traditionally defined as the Sun Belt – Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada- has experienced the largest run-up in prices and, subsequently, has been hit the hardest in the downturn,” according to the report.

By contrast, ”Markets such as Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver never saw the large double-digit price increases in the 2004-2006 period, but their relative rates of decline have also remained comparatively benign,” according to the analysis by S&P/Case-Shiller. “As of the October 2009 report, Denver’s rate of decline is close to flat, at -0.1%,and Dallas is not far behind, down only 0.6% on an annual basis.” The October report was the most recent one. (Denver was rated No. 1 in the October report. To read more about it, please go to this blog.)

The Detroit market was the only one currently below its 2000 level, down by almost 27 percent

Of course, Denver never saw the dramatic, short-term run-up in prices of  other markets. In 2004, Las Vegas was up by 53.2 percent and Phoenix jumped by 49.3 percent. Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa all saw peak annual growth rates above 30 percent. Denver rose by 40.3 percent from January 2000 to its peak in August 2006.

“i think this certainly tracks with what we have been seeing,” said economist Patty Silverstein, principal of Development Research Partners. “Our home prices have been much more stable through this entire period. Our stability means we are in a better position for this whole recovery in the housing market, than most other markets. We have certainly felt the pain of falling prices, and we have certainly felt the pain of rising foreclosures. But the extent of our decline is nothing in comparison to many other markets in other parts of the country. There is something to be said for having a more stable pattern.”

She also said that with almost a 50 percent from January 2000 to Denver’s peak, and then a drop of less than 10 percent from the peak to October, means, “We still have had a net gain position for the whole decade. Considering that we lost about 40,000 jobs and we have seen many other economic indicators that are very flat to negative,  we still managed to see some housing appreciation. I think that is  pretty good. I think we are really in a better position than almost every other market.”

(For another take on the Denver market, please visit this blog.)

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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As I reported in an earlier blog today, the widely followed index showed that in August Denver was second only to Dallas, with the markets showing a 1.9 percent and 1.2 percent drop, respectively.

The entire composite of the 20 cities, although improved from previous months, still showed a double-digit drop, losing an overall 11.3 percent.

“I tell all of my clients that we are in one of the best markets in the country,” said John Skrabec, co-owner of Live Urban Real Estate in Denver.

Byron Koste, head of the CU Real Estate Center, in Boulder, agreed.

“I think it shows that by not over-doing it as much as others did, our overall pain was comparatively less,” Koste said. “It is still painful for those who had to pay the price. But as home buyers in other cities can tell you, it could have been a lot worse.”

For example, in August prices were down 29.9 percent in Las Vegas, 25.1 percent in Phoenix, and 18.8 percent in Miami.

“And people in Miami would tell you, “Baloney. It’s a lot worse,” Koste said.

Koste said the most surprising part of the report was that Dallas was No. 1.

“I guess I am a little surprised by Denver being No. 2 to Dallas,” Koste said. “Dallas being No. 1 was a bigger surprise. I’m surprised they did as well as they did. I think unfortunately, that shows the strength of the petro-chemical industry. The Dallas-Fort Worth area is not a vacation spot, so they were not as glutenous as far as building as Phoenix, and California and Nevada and Florida.”

Independent real estate broker Gary Bauer agreed with others that it was no surprise how well Denver performed.

“We have done very well in maintaining our market,” Bauer said. “There is no real overall price appreciation, other than in some niche markets, where we’re still seeing a little appreciation. ”

Jim Nussbaum, a broker with the Kentwood Co., reinforces the Pew Research Center poll early this year that found Denver was the top big city where people wanted to live,  according to the 2,260 adults it polled.

“I still go back to that study,” Nussbaum said. “Everybody who comes here, really likes it here. We haven’t gone up as fast as other places, but we have not come down as much, either.”

Nussbaum said that in Denver, as elsewhere, a “disproportionate” of the sales are occurring in the lower-price range. A large part of that is being driven by the $8,000 federal tax credit, due to expire at the end of November.

“But we are starting to see some cracks in the $1 million range homes, too,” he said.

Nussbaum noted that he is listing one home that started at $985,000, and the owner agreed to reduce the house to $919,000. It had been listed at even higher prices by other brokers in the past.

“There was a guy who had been watching this house for a couple of years, since the builder first completed it,” Nussbaum said. “He made an offer right away, and we made a very reasonable counter-offer. He didn’t accept it, and we put it under contract this weekend to another buyer.”

Skrabec said that despite the overall market’s drop of 1.9 percent in August, there are pockets of strength.

“In the 80211 ZIP Code (in northwest Denver), I would say that homes have appreciated 3 percent to 5 percent this year. The Highland market, especially at the lower-end, was quite strong this summer. It’s basic supply and demand. I would say another strong market is City Park. I think Highland and City Park are the two strongest markets in the Denver area.”

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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“I think it is awesome,” said Stacy Neir, an agent with Kentwood City Properties. “It is a bit of being the best of the worst.  Still,  only dropping about 5 percent when compared to the rest of the market, shows that we are in much better shape relative to the rest of the nation.”

Neir also noted that “obviously, these are just averages. Real estate is very local and depends on what neighborhood you are talking about.”

For the one-year period, through April, the 20 major metropolitan areas on the list showed a 18.1 percent drop. It also is broken into a 10-city list, which includes Denver, which posted a 18.0 percent drop. Phoenix was the worst-performer, showing a 35.3 percent lost. It was followed by Las Vegas, with a 32.2 percent decline and San Francisco, which fell 28 percent.

Following Denver as the best performers, were Dallas and Boston, down 5 percent and 7.7 percent respectively, in the the one-year period that ended in April.

Overall, the 20 cities are not as doing as poorly as they have in the past.

“The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In addition to the 10-city and 20-city composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to atha of March. Furthermore, every metro area, exept for Charlotte, recorded an improvmeen tin monthly returns over March. While one month’s dta cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems tha some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take soem time to determine if a recovery is really here.”

He also said that other parts of the economy also have shown some strength.

“The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward,” Bitzer said. “This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market.”

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