The Denver metro’s housing market ended last year with a 1.2 percent year-over-year gain, the best showing in 2009, according to the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released today.

However, the one-year change  in December was good for only fifth place of the 20 cities tracked in the index, as other cities also showed even larger one-year gains in December. San Francisco was No. 1 with a 4.8 percent gain. Dallas, San Diego, and Washington, D.C., also showed larger gains than Denver.  Las Vegas, by contrast, showed a 20.6 percent one-year drop.

Still, some local real estate officials said the jump is a good sign that the Denver housing market is on the road to recovery.  It was only the second time that Denver was in positive territory in 2009  from the same month in 2008. In November, the one-year change was 0.5%.

“Wow, that is huge,” said Mike Rinner, of the Genesis Group, which tracks housing along the Front Range. “I just stood in front of a crowd of 140 this morning and told them according to Case-Shiller we were up 0.5 percent and I expected that we would end the year at about zero. Boy, was I wrong.”

The Case-Shiller analyzes data from the same homes that have been re-sold, so it eliminates a bias of different homes in the sales mix, which can drive the average and median prices of homes up or down. For example, there have been so many distressed homes sold in Denver in recent years, that it drove the overall market down, while in more normal years, bigger homes entered the market, driving prices up.

Denver-area home market is healing

What the Case-Shiller study reflects the “healing” of prices at the lower-end, Rinner said.

“The greatest volume of home sales are occurring at the lower end,” Rinner said. “The values have been re-set as lower-end foreclosed homes hit the market, and there has been some appreciation from the lowest levels. If you look at the worst foreclosure markets in Adams, Denver and in Arapahoe counties, those markets have healed. Areas along the northeast corridor such as Green Valley Ranch and Montbello used to have the largest supply of unsold homes on the market, but now they have among the lowest,” as investors and owner-occupants have snapped them up at bargain prices.

By contrast, Rinner said not many sales are occurring in the higher price ranges and there is arguably a large over-supply of expensive homes on the market today.

But because of Case-Shiller’s methodology, it does not include the spec home constructed by a builder for $1.2 million, which never sold and is now going through the foreclosure process and likely will eventually be sold for $400,000 or $500,000, Rinner said.

“Also, at the upper end, owners are less inclined to take a hit, so they won’t sell it in today’s market if they don’t have to,” Rinner said. “So they are just sitting there until the market improves.”

Home values, not ranking, important

Rinner said that Denver’s drop in the ranking is not a concern. Because areas such as San Francisco have had such huge drops in the past, he said it is not a surprise that they may jump as they start emerging from the bottom.

Independent broker Gary Bauer said that the Case-Shiller showing reflects the price gains that have occurred in the Denver area during the past six months.

“It’s been a nice, steady upward movement,” Bauer said. “From my perspective, we were the first coming into it, and we will be the first coming out.”

But Bauer said he is a  ”little surprised that we dropped in the ranking. I didn’t realize that San Francisco is starting its recovery.”

Indeed, he is consulting with a person who three years ago bought a house outside of San Francisco for about $650,000. The owner then put another $300,000 into it. Now, he would like to sell it and move to the Dallas area to be closer to family.

But it’s not worth anything close to $1 million.

“Unfortunately, he bought at the wrong time of the real estate cycle,” Bauer said. “It’s worth maybe $650,000, max. I really don’t know what he can do other than just wait.”

Meanwhile, Bauer is working with a first-time buyer who hopes to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit, which requires that the house is placed under contract by April 30.

“It’s a condo in northeast Aurora that the original owner bought for $143,000,” Bauer said. “We have it under contract for $90,000.”

Tax credit play role

But John P. Cochran, the Dean of the School of Business at Metropolitan State College of Denver, wonders if the tax credit for first-time buyers, which was extended in early November, may have skewed the numbers late last year.

“It’s hard for me, right now, to accurately interpret the numbers of November and December,” Cochran said. “People were uncertain whether the $8,000 tax credit was going to be extended, so there may have been some acceleration going on as we moved closer to that date when it might have expired. I’m guessing that may have caused a one-time bump.”

John Skrabec, the broker-owner of Live Urban Real Estate, said he thinks that the tax credit, which now requires a buyer to place a home under contract by April 30, did help the market late last year. Qualified current owners also have a $6,500 tax credit. The homes must be closed by the end of June to get the credits.

“I think that sales might be front-loaded to the first part of this year, because of the credits,” Skrabec said. “I am a little nervous about what is going to happen after they are gone.”

Still, he said the gain in the Case-Shiller report is an “encouraging sign.”

And he said it doesn’t bother him that some other markets jumped past Denver, although he was surprised that cities such as San Francisco and San Diego saw such big percentage gains.

“I think that is just the pattern that Denver has echoed over time,” Skrabec said. ‘We don’t usually have the biggest drops, but we don’t have the biggest increases, either. Our little chart doesn’t go up and down as some other cities.”

Also, he said that certain neighborhoods have shown much greater appreciation, from the bottom of the market, than the 1.2 percent overall gain reflects.

“Prices have gone up a lot in southwest Denver, in neighborhoods like Ruby Hill and Athmar Park,” Skrabec said. “They were beaten up pretty bad, and there has been a lot of investors fixing and flipping homes there. Prices have been going up. Most of the demand has been from the bottom up, and that’s all right. The market is gong to recover from the bottom up, not from the top down.”

And even higher-priced homes are moving in northwest Denver neighborhoods such as West Highland and Berkeley, he said. Neighborhoods such as City Park and Uptown, also are doing well. “But it’s still pretty tough outside of the city neighborhoods in the suburbs,” he said.

Denver housing up for 5 straight months

Chris Mygatt, president of Coldwell Banker Real Estate in Colorado, said that while the Case-Shiller report is a positive sign, he thinks the market is poised to recover even faster than its report shows.

“If you look at the MLS (Metrolist) data from January, it marked five consecutive months of average prices increasing in Denver,” Mygatt said. “We had not seen that in three years. That is in conjunction with the inventory down to 17,000, plus or minus, low interest rates, and the tax credits, we could be in store for a pretty decent rebound.”

Mygatt said he does not think there is much chance that the tax credits will be extended beyond their current expiration dates. But he thinks that will keep the government buying mortgage-backed securities to keep interest rates low.

Jeff Bernard, a broker with RE/MAX Alliance and principal of Bernard Real Estate Analytics, said his “hunch” is that San Francisco home prices rose so much is because wealthy foreigners took advantage of a weak dollar to buy houses there last year.

He said he thinks that Denver’s overall appreciation is probably caused by homes from $90,000 to $350,000, which have bounced from lower levels, which offset homes at the upper end that have been heavily discounted from their original prices. “I would imagine there would be a fairly large standard deviation if you broke the numbers down by price points,” Bernard said.

Still, Cochran said it is good news that home prices in Denver are moving in the right direction.

“Having a positive number is good, but certainly I have to look at it very, very cautiously as an indicator of where we are heading,” Cochran said.

Nationally, home values improve YOY

Overall, the 10-City and 20-City Composites continued to show improvement in their annual rates of return. In fact, all 20 metro areas and the two composites saw improvement in their annual returns compared to November’s data. Only three cities – Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa – still showed double digit annual rates of decline as of the end of 2009. Miami, Phoenix and Seattle all moved above such rates with December’s report.

But the areas did not fare as well from November to December. Denver lost 0.8 percent, compared to a loss of 0.2 percent for the 20 cities in the index. Only three cities – Chicago, Cleveland and Dallas – showed bigger month-t0-moth declines than Denver.

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the  summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In the most recent months we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month to month improvements in December over November, when you look at the raw data. We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December. Similarly, the National Composite fell by 1.1% in the fourth quarter, but rose by 1.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

Metropolitan Area	November-December Change	1-Year Change from December
Atlanta	-0.7%	-4.0%
Boston	-0.1%	0.5%
Charlotte	-0.7%	-3.8%
Chicago	-1.6%	-7.2%
Cleveland	-0.8%	-1.2%
Dallas	-0.9%	3.0%
DENVER	-0.8%	1.2%
Detroit	0.0%	-10.3%
Las Vegas	0.2%	-20.6%
Los Angeles	1.0%	0.0%
Miami	-0.3%	-9.9%
Minneapolis	-0.5%	-2.3%
New York	-0.7%	-6.3%
Phoenix	0.5%	-9.2%
Portland	-0.3%	-5.4%
San Diego	0.1%	2.7%
San Francisco	-0.2%	4.8%
Seattle	-0.7%	-7.9%
Tampa	-0.6%	-11.0%
Washington, D.C.	-0.2%	1.9%
Composite-10	-0.2%	-2.4%
Composite-20	-0.2%	-3.1%

Month	1-Year Change	Rank
January	-5.1%	2
February	-5.7%	2
March	-5.5%	1
April	-4.9%	1
May	-4.6%	4
June	-3.6%	3
July	-2.9%	3
August	-1.2%	2
September	-1.2%	1
October	-0.1%	1
November	0.5%	3
December	1.25	5

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Fiserv

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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The Denver metropolitan statistical area was one of four cities that in November showed a year-over-year improvement, “something we really haven’t seen in at least two years in most markets,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

The Denver housing market showed a 0.5 percent gain in the year ending in November, bested only by Dallas and San Francisco, which showed a 1.4 percent and a 1.0 percent gain, respectively. San Diego also was in positive territory, with a 0.4%  improvement.

Overall, the 20 markets in the index showed a loss of 5.3 percent.

In October, Denver was ranked No. 1 by Case-Shiller, with a 0.1 percent loss.  (Please visit this link for a blog on October’s results.)

Larry Hotz, a broker with the Kentwood Co., said that the Case-Shiller report reflects homes that went under contract in September and October, and closed in November.

“Back then, we did not know if the Congress and the Obama Administration were going to come out and extend the first-time home buyer tax credit,” Hotz said. “A lot of first-time home buyers were scrambling to get under what could have been the wire.”

Although the $8,000 tax-credit was extended, and a $6,500 tax credit for some current homeowners added, the increased demand put upward pressure on mostly lower-priced homes being sought by people who had been renting or living with their parents.

“It wasn’t uncommon for many homes under $250,000 being bid up,” Hotz said. “I know, because my daughter, who works with me, was taking advantage of the first-time home buyer credit and she had to pay full-price for her home. The lower-end of the market has strengthened, and that obviously is being reflected in the Case-Shiller report.”

But after the tax credit was extended in early November, a sense of urgency among buyers evaporated, and December sales fell sharply more than they do for seasonal reasons, he said.

“We’re still recovering from the holiday blues,” Hotz said.

As the new deadline of April 30 for the tax credits approaches, he said he thinks there will be another surge of people putting homes under contract.

“I think it will be a little less competitive to start looking to buy a home now, than the rush we’re likely going to see as we approach April,” he said.

Charles Roberts, a co-owner of Your Castle Real Estate and a real estate investor, said although it is always nice to have a high-ranking, in another way, he couldn’t care less.

“So we’re not No. 1 and we’re No. 3? So what? What I deal with, and what I care about, is what is going on in my backyard,” he said. “I don’t care that San Francisco appreciated more than us. They’ve been down 50 percent over the past three years, so they should be coming back.”

He said what he cares about is starting to see appreciation in his home and real estate investments, “and I believe that is how the normal person looks at it.”

Roberts, who also is a registered appraiser and a mortgage broker, noted that averages are also misleading, as no individual home is up exactly 0.5 percent.

“We don’t own options on the entire Denver market; we own individual homes,” he said.

And what has happened to individual homes are all across the map, he notes.

“We’re certainly past the downturn for properties under $300,000,” Roberts said. “There is no guarantee that will continue, of course. Maybe interest rates will rise, or the government will stop buying mortgage-backed bonds, or we will experience another wave of foreclosures.”

Still, last year, the Barnum neighborhood in Denver was up 29 percent, Arvada is up 1 percent or 2 percent, and the north Aurora area is up 12 to 15 percent, he said.

“But if you are sitting in a high-end home in Parker, you’re down and probably facing a couple of more years of devastation,” Roberts said. “If you have a $700,000 home in Parker, you would kill for a 0.5 percent improvement, just like I would have five years ago with my little (investment) houses in southwest Denver, when they were falling in value by 25 percent a year.”

Michael Clarkson, principal of Home Hunter Realty in Littleton, has some fundamental problems with Case-Shiller, but said its latest report seems on target.

“I’m happy to say that overall I agree with Shiller,” which ranks Denver as one of the top-performing markets in the country, he said.

“What we’re seeing in Denver right now is that a lot of people are buying down,” said Clarkson, who closely follows a variety of economic indicators that impact real estate, including obvious ones such as interest rates, as well as more arcane ones, such as the money supply.

“One thing I am seeing is that a lot of people are buying toward the median price point of the $200,000 range, which is causing a big feeding frenzy in getting homes in that price range,” Clarkson said. He said that is good for the market because it is taking a lot of houses in the under $300,000 range off the market.

But he said there is not “sufficient lending capacity” for the move-up market. “There is a paucity of financing for the self-employed.” He said that needs to be addressed, as it currently is curtailing a huge segment of the market.

Meanwhile, the latest Case-Shiller numbers, overall, show a mixed-bag.

“While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details,” Blitzer said.  “Only five of the markets saw price increases in November versus October. What is more interesting is that four of the markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years.  In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and November is now considered their current trough value.  On the flip side, there are still some markets that continue to improve month-over-month. Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco have seen prices increase for at least six consecutive months. Looking at the annual figures, four markets – Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco – have finally entered positive territory."

“To add more mixed signals, we are in a seasonally weak period for home prices, so the seasonally-adjusted data are generally more positive, with 14 of the markets and both composites showing improved prices in November.  On balance, while these data do show that home prices are far more stable than they were a year ago, there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery.”

Sources:  Standard & Poor’s, Fiserv

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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The report shows that the U.S., overall, saw prices drop by 8.9 percent during that time period. And the 10 and 20 city composites in the report, fell by 8.5 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively.

“Neither Denver nor Dallas saw that meteoric rise in prices other cities did, so it is logical that they would not see the meteoric declines,” said Tom Cryer, a broker with the Kentwood Co.

Overall, the third-quarter report is a marked improvement over the 14.7% decline in the annual rate of return reported in the second quarter of 2009, and the 19.0% drop in the first quarter.

“We have seen broad improvement in home prices for most of the past six months,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “However, the gains in the most recent month are more modest than during the seasonally strong summer months. Fewer cities saw month to month improvements in September than in August in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures.”
Nationally, the U.S. National Composite rose by 3.1% in both the second and third  quarters of 2009. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their fifth consecutive monthly increase with September’s report.

Steve Blank, a broker with Fuller Sotheby’s International Realty, said that the 1.2 percent decline in Denver is “freakishly good,” and better than he would have expected.

“I would say that things are pretty well bottoming out now, and if they are not at the bottom, they are close,” he said.

But he said that the market is only down by 1.2 percent because of price improvements at the lower-priced homes, as expensive homes are still hurting.

“There are some phenomenally good deals at the high-end,” Blank said.

However, there is some good news for buyers of luxury properties, he said. Just recently, lenders started making more competitive jumbo loans – that is,  for mortgages of more than the conventional loans that top out at $417,000, he said.

“One lender offers what it calls “doctor loans,” he said.  These loans are fixed for either 10 or 7 years and are amortized over 30 years.

“You can get them at in the 4.375 percent or 4.75 percent range,” Blank said. But you need a credit score of 740 or higher, and typically lenders want at least 20 percent down, he said. Thirty year fixed jumbo loans also are available in the 5.5 percent range, for extremely qualified buyers who put at least 20 percent down, although he said occasionally a lender will allow only a 10 percent down payment.

Diane P. Huttner, a broker with Prestige Real Estate Group, said the top ranking at Case-Shiller is wonderful.

“That is really good news,” she said. “That tells us something about our market.”

But she agrees with Blank and other Realtors that the top-end of the market is still “quite challenging.”

She said that she has noticed a number of expensive homes recently selling in the Hilltop and Cherry Creek areas for less than the mortgage amount, although she said one expensive home in Cherry Creek recently sold for a mere $15,000 below the asking price.

And she said she spoke to a builder about buying some land near the Preserve in Greenwood Village. The builder, who constructs homes priced above $2 million, said even if she gave the land to him, “no one wants to pay me what it would cost to build a home.”

But she said for someone wanting to move up, it may be worth it to sell their home for even a slight loss, because they can drive a great bargain for a luxury home.

Mike Rinner, of the Genesis Group, which tracks housing along the Front Range, also said that the most recent Case-Shiller ranking is good, and continues a trend seen for most of the year.

He said Denver and Dallas each have has seen seven months of consecutive improvements from the previous months this year. But some of that, especially in mid-year, was because of seasonality, he said. Even in overall down years, there are some month-to-month improvements for seasonal reasons, he said. No markets are showing consistent improvements from the same month in 2008, Rinner noted.

While that, with today’s report are encouraging, he said the market still faces more pain.

“I think it is going to stay negative, as far as price appreciation,” Rinner said. “We will be lucky if we hit zero (price appreciation) next year. In the third quarter of this year, foreclosures jumped 54 percent from foreclosures last year.  And with more foreclosures, and fewer jobs, it is just tough to get a housing recovery. Housing demand is a function of employment.”

Still, for those able to buy today and hold on until 2012, will  be rewarded, said Cryer, of Kentwood.

He said 2010 will not be that much different from 2009, and 2011 “will not be super. But in 2012, I guarantee you that you, me, my neighbors and everybody will wish they had bought those short sales and foreclosures in 2009. If you want a “lock it and leave it” lifestyle, and plan to retire in the next few years, now is the time to buy a condo in the Landmark. Look at the confleucen of events we have with low interest rates, a good supply of homes to choose from at the upper end, and depressed prices. It just takes one of those factors to go away to completely change the buying opportunity we have  today.”

Area	Appreciation since 2000	September to October change	1-year change from October
U.S.	46.58	0.4%	-7.3%
Atlanta	10.12%	-1.0%	-8.1%
Boston	54.7%	-0.6%	-2.8%
Charlotte	19.05%	-0.7%	-7.0%
Chicago	30.78%	-1.0%	-10.1%
Cleveland	4.97%	-1.6%	-3.5%
Dallas	19.90%	-0.6%	-0.6%
DENVER	28.91%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Detroit	-26.93%	0.2%	-15.1%
Las Vegas	04.7%	-0.1%	-15.1%
Los Angeles	68.43%	0.3%	-6.3%
Miami	49.09%	0.4%	-14.0%
Minneapolis	24.51%	-0.5%	-8.4%
New York	75.01%	-0.0%	-7.7%
Phoenix	9.26%	0.8%	-21.8%
Portland	49.72%	-0.5%	-11.8%
San Diego	55.37%	0.4%	-2.4%
San Francisco	35.81%	1.3%	-2.6%
Seattle	49.26%	-0.4%	-12.4%
Tampa	40.27%	-1.6%	-15.2%
Washington, D.C.	79.71	-0.4%	-2.8%
Composite-10	58.82%	0.0%	-6.4%
Composite-20	46.58%	0.0%	-7.3%

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Denver homes, overall, lost 1.9 percent in August, according to the index. Only Dallas, with a 1.2 percent drop, performed better. The overall drop for the 20 cities was 11. 3 percent. Denver had been ranked No. 3 in July and June,  in the index.

“Dallas and Denver are continuing their trend from the past month, edging closer into positive territory,” the report notes. The report notes all the areas showed annual declines in August, although they are showing signs of recovery.” Broadly speaking, the rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. The two Composites and 19 of the 20 metro area showed an improvement in the annual rates of returns, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines.”

Seventeen  of the metropolitan statistical areas and both the 10-city and 20-city composites saw price increases in August over July, Blitzer noted.

“While many of the markets remain down versus this time last year, the relative rate of decline has shown some real improvement,” he added. “California, in particular, has seen some real positive prints in recent months. We see this general trend whether you look at the as-reported data or the seasonally adjusted figure.”

Still, their are potential gray skies on the horizon that could rain on the home market’s rally in the near future.

“Once again, however, we do want to remind people of the upcoming expiration of the federal first-time buyer’s tax credit in November, and anticipated higher-unemployment rates through year-end. Both may have a dampening effect on home prices.”

Metropolitan Areas	July/August Percentage Change	June/July Percentage Change	1-Year Percentage Change
Atlanta	1.0%	2.3%	-10.6%
Boston	0.9%	1.2%	-4.2%
Charlotte	-0.4%	0.6%	-8.6%
Chicago	1.7%	2.7%	-12.7%
Cleveland	-0.5%	1.5%	-2.8%
Dallas	0.2%	1.2%	-1.2%
DENVER	1.0%	1.5%	-1.9%
Detroit	1.9%	1.1%	-22.6%
Las Vegas	-0.3%	-1.1%	-29.9%
Los Angeles	1.6%	1.8%	-12.0
Miami	1.1%	1.3%	-18.8%
Minneapolis	3.2%	4.8%	-13.7%
New York	0.5%	0.9%	-9.6%
Phoenix	1.6%	1.8%	-25.1%
Portland	0.3%	1.1%	-12.5%
San Diego	1.6%	2.5%	-8.9%
San Francisco	2.8%	3.3%	-12.5%
Seattle	0.1%	-0.1%	-14.7%
Tampa	0.4%	1.4%	-17.7%
Washington, D.C.	1.4%	1.9%	-7.9%
Composite-10	1.3%	1.7%	-10.6%
Composite-20	1.2%	1.6%	-11.3%

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Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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