The Denver metro’s housing market ended last year with a 1.2 percent year-over-year gain, the best showing in 2009, according to the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released today.

However, the one-year change  in December was good for only fifth place of the 20 cities tracked in the index, as other cities also showed even larger one-year gains in December. San Francisco was No. 1 with a 4.8 percent gain. Dallas, San Diego, and Washington, D.C., also showed larger gains than Denver.  Las Vegas, by contrast, showed a 20.6 percent one-year drop.

Still, some local real estate officials said the jump is a good sign that the Denver housing market is on the road to recovery.  It was only the second time that Denver was in positive territory in 2009  from the same month in 2008. In November, the one-year change was 0.5%.

“Wow, that is huge,” said Mike Rinner, of the Genesis Group, which tracks housing along the Front Range. “I just stood in front of a crowd of 140 this morning and told them according to Case-Shiller we were up 0.5 percent and I expected that we would end the year at about zero. Boy, was I wrong.”

The Case-Shiller analyzes data from the same homes that have been re-sold, so it eliminates a bias of different homes in the sales mix, which can drive the average and median prices of homes up or down. For example, there have been so many distressed homes sold in Denver in recent years, that it drove the overall market down, while in more normal years, bigger homes entered the market, driving prices up.

Denver-area home market is healing

What the Case-Shiller study reflects the “healing” of prices at the lower-end, Rinner said.

“The greatest volume of home sales are occurring at the lower end,” Rinner said. “The values have been re-set as lower-end foreclosed homes hit the market, and there has been some appreciation from the lowest levels. If you look at the worst foreclosure markets in Adams, Denver and in Arapahoe counties, those markets have healed. Areas along the northeast corridor such as Green Valley Ranch and Montbello used to have the largest supply of unsold homes on the market, but now they have among the lowest,” as investors and owner-occupants have snapped them up at bargain prices.

By contrast, Rinner said not many sales are occurring in the higher price ranges and there is arguably a large over-supply of expensive homes on the market today.

But because of Case-Shiller’s methodology, it does not include the spec home constructed by a builder for $1.2 million, which never sold and is now going through the foreclosure process and likely will eventually be sold for $400,000 or $500,000, Rinner said.

“Also, at the upper end, owners are less inclined to take a hit, so they won’t sell it in today’s market if they don’t have to,” Rinner said. “So they are just sitting there until the market improves.”

Home values, not ranking, important

Rinner said that Denver’s drop in the ranking is not a concern. Because areas such as San Francisco have had such huge drops in the past, he said it is not a surprise that they may jump as they start emerging from the bottom.

Independent broker Gary Bauer said that the Case-Shiller showing reflects the price gains that have occurred in the Denver area during the past six months.

“It’s been a nice, steady upward movement,” Bauer said. “From my perspective, we were the first coming into it, and we will be the first coming out.”

But Bauer said he is a  ”little surprised that we dropped in the ranking. I didn’t realize that San Francisco is starting its recovery.”

Indeed, he is consulting with a person who three years ago bought a house outside of San Francisco for about $650,000. The owner then put another $300,000 into it. Now, he would like to sell it and move to the Dallas area to be closer to family.

But it’s not worth anything close to $1 million.

“Unfortunately, he bought at the wrong time of the real estate cycle,” Bauer said. “It’s worth maybe $650,000, max. I really don’t know what he can do other than just wait.”

Meanwhile, Bauer is working with a first-time buyer who hopes to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit, which requires that the house is placed under contract by April 30.

“It’s a condo in northeast Aurora that the original owner bought for $143,000,” Bauer said. “We have it under contract for $90,000.”

Tax credit play role

But John P. Cochran, the Dean of the School of Business at Metropolitan State College of Denver, wonders if the tax credit for first-time buyers, which was extended in early November, may have skewed the numbers late last year.

“It’s hard for me, right now, to accurately interpret the numbers of November and December,” Cochran said. “People were uncertain whether the $8,000 tax credit was going to be extended, so there may have been some acceleration going on as we moved closer to that date when it might have expired. I’m guessing that may have caused a one-time bump.”

John Skrabec, the broker-owner of Live Urban Real Estate, said he thinks that the tax credit, which now requires a buyer to place a home under contract by April 30, did help the market late last year. Qualified current owners also have a $6,500 tax credit. The homes must be closed by the end of June to get the credits.

“I think that sales might be front-loaded to the first part of this year, because of the credits,” Skrabec said. “I am a little nervous about what is going to happen after they are gone.”

Still, he said the gain in the Case-Shiller report is an “encouraging sign.”

And he said it doesn’t bother him that some other markets jumped past Denver, although he was surprised that cities such as San Francisco and San Diego saw such big percentage gains.

“I think that is just the pattern that Denver has echoed over time,” Skrabec said. ‘We don’t usually have the biggest drops, but we don’t have the biggest increases, either. Our little chart doesn’t go up and down as some other cities.”

Also, he said that certain neighborhoods have shown much greater appreciation, from the bottom of the market, than the 1.2 percent overall gain reflects.

“Prices have gone up a lot in southwest Denver, in neighborhoods like Ruby Hill and Athmar Park,” Skrabec said. “They were beaten up pretty bad, and there has been a lot of investors fixing and flipping homes there. Prices have been going up. Most of the demand has been from the bottom up, and that’s all right. The market is gong to recover from the bottom up, not from the top down.”

And even higher-priced homes are moving in northwest Denver neighborhoods such as West Highland and Berkeley, he said. Neighborhoods such as City Park and Uptown, also are doing well. “But it’s still pretty tough outside of the city neighborhoods in the suburbs,” he said.

Denver housing up for 5 straight months

Chris Mygatt, president of Coldwell Banker Real Estate in Colorado, said that while the Case-Shiller report is a positive sign, he thinks the market is poised to recover even faster than its report shows.

“If you look at the MLS (Metrolist) data from January, it marked five consecutive months of average prices increasing in Denver,” Mygatt said. “We had not seen that in three years. That is in conjunction with the inventory down to 17,000, plus or minus, low interest rates, and the tax credits, we could be in store for a pretty decent rebound.”

Mygatt said he does not think there is much chance that the tax credits will be extended beyond their current expiration dates. But he thinks that will keep the government buying mortgage-backed securities to keep interest rates low.

Jeff Bernard, a broker with RE/MAX Alliance and principal of Bernard Real Estate Analytics, said his “hunch” is that San Francisco home prices rose so much is because wealthy foreigners took advantage of a weak dollar to buy houses there last year.

He said he thinks that Denver’s overall appreciation is probably caused by homes from $90,000 to $350,000, which have bounced from lower levels, which offset homes at the upper end that have been heavily discounted from their original prices. “I would imagine there would be a fairly large standard deviation if you broke the numbers down by price points,” Bernard said.

Still, Cochran said it is good news that home prices in Denver are moving in the right direction.

“Having a positive number is good, but certainly I have to look at it very, very cautiously as an indicator of where we are heading,” Cochran said.

Nationally, home values improve YOY

Overall, the 10-City and 20-City Composites continued to show improvement in their annual rates of return. In fact, all 20 metro areas and the two composites saw improvement in their annual returns compared to November’s data. Only three cities – Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa – still showed double digit annual rates of decline as of the end of 2009. Miami, Phoenix and Seattle all moved above such rates with December’s report.

But the areas did not fare as well from November to December. Denver lost 0.8 percent, compared to a loss of 0.2 percent for the 20 cities in the index. Only three cities – Chicago, Cleveland and Dallas – showed bigger month-t0-moth declines than Denver.

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the  summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In the most recent months we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month to month improvements in December over November, when you look at the raw data. We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December. Similarly, the National Composite fell by 1.1% in the fourth quarter, but rose by 1.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

Metropolitan Area	November-December Change	1-Year Change from December
Atlanta	-0.7%	-4.0%
Boston	-0.1%	0.5%
Charlotte	-0.7%	-3.8%
Chicago	-1.6%	-7.2%
Cleveland	-0.8%	-1.2%
Dallas	-0.9%	3.0%
DENVER	-0.8%	1.2%
Detroit	0.0%	-10.3%
Las Vegas	0.2%	-20.6%
Los Angeles	1.0%	0.0%
Miami	-0.3%	-9.9%
Minneapolis	-0.5%	-2.3%
New York	-0.7%	-6.3%
Phoenix	0.5%	-9.2%
Portland	-0.3%	-5.4%
San Diego	0.1%	2.7%
San Francisco	-0.2%	4.8%
Seattle	-0.7%	-7.9%
Tampa	-0.6%	-11.0%
Washington, D.C.	-0.2%	1.9%
Composite-10	-0.2%	-2.4%
Composite-20	-0.2%	-3.1%

Month	1-Year Change	Rank
January	-5.1%	2
February	-5.7%	2
March	-5.5%	1
April	-4.9%	1
May	-4.6%	4
June	-3.6%	3
July	-2.9%	3
August	-1.2%	2
September	-1.2%	1
October	-0.1%	1
November	0.5%	3
December	1.25	5

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Fiserv

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

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Denver’s housing market showed only a only a 0.1 percent dip in housing prices in the year ending in October, compared with an overall drop of 7.3 percent for the 20 areas in the report. The 10-city index in the report fell overall by -6.4 percent.

Tom Clark, executive vice president of the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp., said that Denver’s No. 1 ranking is the latest sign that Denver’s economy is out-performing the nation’s.

“Job growth does matter,” Clark said. “What a concept.”

Gary Bauer, an independent residential broker in Denver couldn’t agree more.

“Once again, this shows the strength of the Denver market,”  Bauer said.  “We continue to lead the nation as far as recovering from the recession – the recession is not over yet – but we will be one of the first to emerge.”

Bauer said that “two-thirds” of the Denver-area housing market “still moving,” if not showing spectacular performance. Only the high-end market continues to be soft.

“The market has moved from the only activity being in the first-time buyer to what I call the “move” buyer,” Bauer said.

Bauer has said that the move buyer will benefit from the expansion of the federal tax-credit for qualified people who own their owns. Some of those buyers who qualify for the $6,500 tax credit will downsize to smaller, less expensive units, while others will move-up, according to Bauer and other Realtors.

Bauer said that while it some ways he is a “little surprised,” that Denver out-performed the other 19 cities in the Case-Shiller index, in “another way I am not…We have seen two or three months of very consistent activity.

Tom Cryer said if a homeowner wants to sell a house quickly in Denver, he or she needs to price it slightly below the market.

“If you think the market is $100,000, and you price it at $97,000, it will go away,” said Cryer, a broker with the Kentwood Co.

Cryer also said he thinks that move-up buyers may decide that it is an excellent time to snap up homes priced up to $500,000, with sellers willing to deal, near-record low mortgage rates, and the $6,500 tax credit for qualified existing home owners, starting in 2010

“I feel we are going to start see a wake-up call in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range,” Cryer said. “But we will know better after the first quarter of 2010.”

The market for homes that require more than a conforming loan of $417,000, however, remain soft, he said.

“In the last 60 days, we have seen houses that previously had sold for $5.9 million selling for $4.1 million,” Cryer said. “I think the luxury housing market remains in a state of  malaise.”

He also said people who bought McMansions during better economic times that they thought would never end, are facing buyer’s remorse as large as their 10-bedroom estates.

“There has been a mind-set change,” Cryer said. “Let’s take a hypothetical guy in Cherry Hills who bought a 10,000-square-foot home with Monopoly money. Now, he says, “Gosh, with taxes and water bills, (which can hit $4,000 during a hot month), and my kids are grown and are only here a couple weeks a year, why do I need this? I don’t mean to be trite, but it’s like the Prius effect. If my Prius seats four comfortably, why do I need a Cadillac?”

Overall, “the report should be described as flat since the turn-around in home prices seen in the spring and summer of this year has faded with only seven of the 20 cities now seeing month-to-month gains,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

From September to October, Denver prices were down 0.4%, while the overall market for the 20 cities showed no change from the same period in 2008.

“Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip,” Blitzer continued.  “Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today.  Further, sales of existing homes – those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010.”

The peak-to-date figures for the 10-City and 20-City Composites through October 2009 now stands at -29.8% and -29.0%, respectively.

Long-term, however, the Denver housing market remains in the middle-of-the-pack. Denver showed a 28.91 percent increase in prices since January 2000, slightly better than the inflation rate. By contrast, the 20 cities in the index showed an overall gain of 46.58 percent.

However, some Southwest cities that are frequently compared to Denver, have seen their long-term, as well as short-term prices fall to earth, after prices surged into the stratosphere a few years ago.

Since 2000, prices in Las Vegas and Phoenix, respectively, have risen only 4.7 percent and 10.71 percent.

“That is kind of good news and bad news,” said Clark, of the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp. “That good news is that it shows fundamentally, housing values are built on job growth,” and not on ‘build it and they will come philosophy in Phoenix or hope that home buyers will continual to flock to Vegas, no matter the state of the economy.

“The downside is that prices had risen so much in Phoenix during the boom, that their prices were equal to us, so it was not so much sticker shock when someone from the Midwest looked at Denver housing and Phoenix housing,” Clark said.

“Now, Phoenix is losing that disadvantage, as their housing stock declines in value,” Clark said, and comparable home prices trail those in Denver, as has been the historical pattern. That means that Denver will not be able to tout inexpensive housing as an economic incentive, when compared to Phoenix, he said.

“But I don’t think this will be a huge problem, because home prices have declined across the nation,” Clark said. “I do not think it will be quite the obstacle for companies to overcome as far as attracting and retaining people as it would have been in the past.”

Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865.

Area	Appreciation since 2000	September to October change	1-year change from October
U.S.	46.58	0.4%	-7.3%
Atlanta	10.12%	-1.0%	-8.1%
Boston	54.7%	-0.6%	-2.8%
Charlotte	19.05%	-0.7%	-7.0%
Chicago	30.78%	-1.0%	-10.1%
Cleveland	4.97%	-1.6%	-3.5%
Dallas	19.90%	-0.6%	-0.6%
DENVER	28.91%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Detroit	-26.93%	0.2%	-15.1%
Las Vegas	04.7%	-0.1%	-15.1%
Los Angeles	68.43%	0.3%	-6.3%
Miami	49.09%	0.4%	-14.0%
Minneapolis	24.51%	-0.5%	-8.4%
New York	75.01%	-0.0%	-7.7%
Phoenix	9.26%	0.8%	-21.8%
Portland	49.72%	-0.5%	-11.8%
San Diego	55.37%	0.4%	-2.4%
San Francisco	35.81%	1.3%	-2.6%
Seattle	49.26%	-0.4%	-12.4%
Tampa	40.27%	-1.6%	-15.2%
Washington, D.C.	79.71	-0.4%	-2.8%
Composite-10	58.82%	0.0%	-6.4%
Composite-20	46.58%	0.0%	-7.3%

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